Key Takeaways
- A survey of economists showed that most experts believe the economy faces risks of recession and high inflation.
- The 159 respondents largely said President Donald Trump’s economic policies would increase those risks.
- The policies that a majority of economists were concerned with were tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and the One Big, Beautiful Bill, among others.
Economists see increasing risks to the economy, many of which may be caused by President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Tariffs, the recently-passed tax and spending bill, the government’s crackdown on immigration, Trump’s interference with the Federal Reserve, and the administration’s management of government economic statistics are all likely to damage the economy in some way, according to a survey of 159 experts carried out by the National Association of For Business Economics between July 31 and Aug. 11 and released Monday.
Experts have particularly criticized Trump’s campaign of raising import taxes, warning that historically, tariffs have brought slower growth and higher prices rather than the economic “golden age” the White House has promised.
“A majority of respondents sees tariffs as one of the three largest risks to growth, as was the case in the March 2025 Policy Survey,” NABE policy survey chair Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist at thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “Fewer participants than in the March 2025 survey think that inflation will settle down to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% before 2027.”
Tariffs
The survey found little support for President Donald Trumps controversial campaign of raising import taxes on U.S. trading partners: 88% of those surveyed expected tariffs to either significantly or moderately slow economic growth. The same percentage expected the tariffs to significantly or moderately increase inflation.
Tariffs have already pushed up some prices, according to several key inflation measures. Forecasters expect those price hikes to continue for at least several more months as merchants pass the cost of tariffs on to consumers.
In a bright spot for Trump, the economists dialed back their forecasts that the tariffs would send the economy into a recession in the near future.
Immigration
The economists also warned about the impact of Trumps crackdown on immigration, with most predicting that reduced immigration will slow economic growth. The majority of experts (66%) said increased immigration would benefit the economy, while only 8% said the country needed fewer immigrants. The remainder said current immigration levels were about right.
The Big Beautiful Bill
Trumps signature tax and spending law is likely to push up spending deficits, according to the survey, with 78% of respondents saying the cost of the tax cuts would outweigh the benefits to the economy.
Trump’s Intimidation Of The Fed
The economists were widely concerned about Trumps campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has included browbeating and threatening Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The survey was taken before Trump called for the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook and threatened her with a legal investigation.
Those surveyed by the NABE backed the idea that the Fed works better as an independent institution outside the presidents control. Half said they were very concerned about the White Houses interference with the Fed, and another 27% said they were somewhat concerned.
Concern About The Numbers
The survey also showed economists were concerned about the Trump administrations economic data management. Earlier this month, Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statisticsdirectorafter her agency reported that job creation was slowing down.
The survey asked panelists to rate their worry about the potential decline in quality and reliability of government statistics in the next few years on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most worried: the average answer was 7.5.
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