Key Takeaways
- The U.S. economy needs to add 10,000 to 40,000 jobs per month to maintain the current unemployment rate, according to recent estimates.
- That “breakeven” job creation rate is far less than the 73,000 jobs added in July.
- As recently as 2024, economists estimated the job market needed to add as many as 230,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady.
- President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration has reduced the number of job seekers, leading to a lower bar for breakeven employment.
When reading about the health of the economy in the coming months, don’t be surprised if you hear more about a relatively obscure statistic: the “breakeven” job creation level.
Economists and policymakers have paid increasing attention to the number of jobs the U.S. economy needs to add every month to keep the unemployment rate from spiking. That is especially important in the wake of last months shock labor market report, which showed job growth slowed to a crawl in May, June, and July.
As recently as 2024, the breakeven unemployment rate was considered to be six figures. But now, the number may be far lower. Researchers at two think tanks, the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute, estimated in a paper last month that it could be as low as 10,000 to 40,000.
To put that in context: the economy has added an average of 147,000 jobs every month for the past 10 years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 73,000 jobs added in July were below expectations and widely seen as a red flag for the health of the labor market, which is slowing down amid President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging campaign of raising import taxes.
The breakeven number has plunged suddenly because of one of Trump’s major policies: his crackdown on immigration. With fewer immigrants entering the country and some being deported, fewer people are looking for work. That means the economy needs to add fewer jobs to maintain the current unemployment rate, which has been hovering between 4% and 4.2% for months, a historically low level.
Why Does the Breakeven Rate Matter?
The breakeven rate is important for anyone evaluating the health of the economy, especially for Federal Reserve policymakers.
Central bankers are currently weighing whether to cut their benchmark interest rate to boost the job market or keep it high to fight inflation. If the breakeven rate is lower than previously thought, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other decision-makers might feel less urgency to cut interest rates.
As Powell put it last month at a press conference:
“Demand for workers in the form of payroll jobs—that number has come down, but so has the breakeven number, kind of in tandem,” Powell said. “That puts the labor market in balance.”
Powell could explore the topic again later this week at the Feds highly anticipatedJackson Hole economic conference, which is themed “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.
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